Guac/Docs/Trading Strategies
LEARNING PATH · GUIDE 02

Find your
trading style

Four major approaches to crypto trading. Each with its own logic, risk profile, and time commitment. Pick the one that fits your life, and consider mixing.

Whether you're automating, analyzing patterns, evaluating fundamentals, or building long-term wealth, this guide covers the strategies that actually shape the crypto market.

PART01

Automated Trading

Algorithmic trading executes orders based on pre-programmed rules. It eliminates emotion, scales beyond human bandwidth, and operates around the clock. Done right, it's a multiplier on capital and discipline. Done wrong, it's an expensive way to learn what doesn't work.

How automated trading works

Automated systems combine five components in a closed loop:

  1. Data collection · Real-time prices, volume, order book depth, sometimes on-chain data
  2. Strategy implementation · Pre-defined rules for entries and exits
  3. Risk management · Position sizing, stop losses, max drawdown limits
  4. Execution engine · Low-latency order routing across exchanges
  5. Performance monitoring · Continuous P&L tracking and strategy evaluation

Strategy types

Trend following

Uses moving averages and momentum indicators to ride strong directional moves. Works best in markets with clear trends. Example: buy when 50-day MA crosses above 200-day MA, sell when it crosses back below.

Mean reversion

Bets on price returning to its average after extreme moves. Uses RSI overbought/oversold thresholds (sell above 70, buy below 30). Works in range-bound markets, fails when trends emerge.

Other popular automated strategies Arbitrage exploits price differences across exchanges. Market Making provides liquidity for the spread. Momentum Trading buys strength, sells weakness. Grid Trading buys low and sells high within a defined range.

Advantages

  • Emotion-free · Discipline enforced by code, not willpower
  • 24/7 execution · Markets never close. Neither does the bot.
  • Speed · Sub-second execution vs. human reaction time
  • Backtesting · Validate strategies against historical data before risking capital
  • Consistency · Same logic, every time, regardless of mood or fatigue

Challenges to consider

  • Technical issues · Latency, downtime, API rate limits
  • Over-optimization · "Curve-fitting" strategies that look great on past data but fail forward
  • Market regime changes · Strategies that work in one regime can stop working entirely in another
  • Monitoring required · Set-and-forget is a myth. Check in regularly.
  • Initial setup · Proper configuration and validation take time
Tips for beginners Start small. Use paper trading first. Keep strategies simple. Complexity rarely improves outcomes. Understand exactly what your strategy does, why it should work, and when it will fail. The strategies you can explain are the ones you'll trust enough to keep running.
PART02

Technical Analysis

Technical analysis rests on three principles:

  1. Market action discounts everything · Price reflects all known information
  2. Prices move in trends · Until evidence proves otherwise
  3. History tends to repeat itself · Because human psychology does
Technical vs. fundamental Technical analysis studies price action: Fundamental analysis studies underlying value: Most successful traders combine both, using fundamentals to choose what to trade and technicals to choose when.

Chart patterns

Continuation patterns

Flags, pennants, triangles, rectangles. Signal that the prevailing trend will likely continue after a brief consolidation. Wait for confirmation: a breakout in the trend direction with volume.

Reversal patterns

Head and shoulders, double tops/bottoms, wedges. Signal that the prevailing trend is exhausted and likely to reverse. Also need confirmation: a clean break of the pattern's neckline.

Technical indicators

CategoryIndicatorsWhat they measure
TrendMoving Averages, MACD, ADXDirection & strength
MomentumRSI, Stochastic, CCISpeed of price change
VolatilityBollinger Bands, ATR, KeltnerPrice dispersion
VolumeOBV, Volume Profile, CMFConviction behind moves

Support and resistance

Price levels where buying or selling pressure historically concentrates. Support floors a falling market. Resistance caps a rising one. When broken with conviction, roles often reverse, old resistance becomes new support.

Applying TA in practice Use multiple timeframes · confirm the daily signal on the 4-hour. Combine indicators · never rely on one. Consider market context · is the broader market trending or chopping? Always practice risk management · even a 90% accurate setup needs a stop loss.
PART03

Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysis evaluates intrinsic value by examining the project itself, the token economics, the market context, and external forces. Less useful for short-term timing. Essential for medium and long-term conviction.

The four areas

  • Project fundamentals · Technology, team, roadmap
  • Tokenomics · Supply, distribution, utility, value accrual
  • Market analysis · Competition, addressable market, adoption
  • External factors · Regulation, macro trends, sentiment

Project fundamentals

Technology assessment

Blockchain architecture, consensus mechanism, scalability solutions, security features. Is the tech novel or derivative? Does the design solve a real problem?

Team evaluation

Experience, track record, transparency, GitHub activity. Anonymous teams aren't automatically bad, but they raise the bar on everything else.

Evaluating the roadmap Realistic timelines · Are milestones achievable? Clear objectives · Or just vague aspirations? Historical delivery · Has the team shipped before? Adaptability · Roadmaps that never change indicate inflexibility, not vision.

Tokenomics

  • Supply mechanism · Fixed cap (like BTC) vs. inflationary (like ETH pre-merge)
  • Token distribution · Concentration risk: who holds what?
  • Vesting schedules · Team and investor unlock timing
  • Token utility · What is the token actually used for?
  • Value accrual · How does protocol usage translate to token value?

Market & external factors

AreaWhat to check
MarketCompetitive advantage, market size, adoption metrics, partnerships
ExternalRegulatory environment, macro trends, industry developments, sentiment
On-chain analysis Active addresses · Transaction volume · Network hash rate · Staking statistics · Token velocity. The blockchain itself tells you what's actually happening, independent of marketing or hype.
PART04

Long-term Investing

Long-term investing, "HODLing" in crypto vernacular, focuses on fundamental value over multi-year horizons. You ride through volatility instead of fighting it.

Why long-term works

  • Focus on fundamentals · Short-term noise becomes irrelevant
  • Reduced emotional trading · Fewer decisions, less stress, fewer mistakes
  • Lower time commitment · Hours per year, not per day
  • Tax efficiency · Long-term capital gains often taxed lower than short-term

Investment strategies

Dollar-cost averaging (DCA)

Invest a fixed amount on a regular schedule, regardless of price. Example: $100 in Bitcoin every week. Smooths volatility, removes emotion, builds positions over time without trying to time bottoms.

Value investing

Research-driven approach. Identify undervalued assets through fundamental analysis. Buy quality projects opportunistically after market corrections. Requires conviction and patience.

Sample long-term portfolio BTC 40% · ETH 30% · Large caps (BNB, SOL, ADA) 15% · Mid caps (LINK, DOT, AVAX) 10% · Small caps 5%. Adjust by your own risk tolerance. This is illustrative, not advice.

Risk management

  • Position sizing · Limit crypto to 5-10% of total net worth
  • Diversification · Across categories and risk levels, not just count
  • Research thoroughly · Before any allocation
  • Secure storage · Hardware wallets for long-term holdings
  • Regular review · Quarterly thesis check, not daily anxiety
Security best practices for long-term holders Hardware wallets (Ledger, Trezor) · Metal seed phrase backups · Multi-signature setups for large positions · Inheritance planning if positions are meaningful. The biggest risk to long-term holdings isn't price. It's losing access.

Common challenges

  • Market volatility · Focus on long-term thesis; treat corrections as opportunities
  • FOMO and FUD · Stick to your plan; have clear buy/sell criteria written down before emotion arrives
  • Technological changes · Stay informed; reassess thesis when fundamentals shift
  • Regulatory uncertainty · Diversify jurisdictions; regulation can legitimize good projects

Pick your path

Ready to put theory into practice? Here's where to go next: